With all the drama over President Donald Trump’s threats to ban the international, tech watchers in the US haven’t spent as much time considering what might lead to as well. A well-connected Apple analyst crunched the numbers and estimates iPhone sales could drop as much as 30% worldwide if a ban goes into effect. Other Apple products could see drops of up to 25% as well.
In a note to investors published by AppleInsider and MacRumors, Ming-Chi Kuo wrote: “Since WeChat is very critical to Chinese users, integrating communications, payments, e-commerce, social software, news reading, and productivity functions, we believe that the move will tank iPhone shipments in the Chinese market.”
Kuo based his estimates on a belief that if the WeChat ban goes through, it’d likely be forced out of Apple’s App Store worldwide. Apple didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
The estimate marks the latest way analysts are attempting to understand what raise prices on American industry and consumers.on the two Chinese apps from our smartphones would mean for companies like Apple. Trump is frequently criticized for making policy decisions, such as imposing tariffs on imports, that
As a result of Trump’s threats, companies are scrambling to avoid the ban. Microsoft has expressed, for example. The social network, which counts more than a billion downloads worldwide and 100 million users in the US, said it also in an attempt to stop the ban.
If the bans take effect, Kuo said a best-case scenario is that Apple would only be forced to remove the Chinese apps from its US App Store. In that case, iPhone sales would decline by as much as 6%, and other Apple devices would likely fall less than 3%.
“Theoretically, the US government will not hurt Apple,” Kuo wrote. “However, the US presidential election is approaching, and we think Trump may adopt more aggressive strategies for the election, including asking Apple to remove WeChat from worldwide App Stores.”